This is most acute in England where they are entering the third year out of a seven-year transition away from direct payments, alongside increasing input costs and volatile output prices. This change is exposing the low margins and high risks of farming. In Wales and Scotland they are only just introducing their agriculture bills and developing new policies.
Whist important, agricultural policy cannot solve the problems of the climate crisis and nature decline on its own. The Green Finance Institute has calculated that if the UK is to meet the government targets for net zero and nature recovery, there is a median finance gap across the UK of £56 billion over the next 10 years, with the largest finance gap in England. Private sector funding through natural capital markets is expected to plug some of this gap. This will be driven in part by compliance markets such as biodiversity net gain for housing and infrastructure projects, and Nutrient Neutrality offsetting. Other funding sources from business and organisations will be voluntary, such as, carbon offsetting or other investment in nature, driven by climate and nature related financial disclosure requirements and reputational risks. Defra has set a target to increase private sector funding for the environment to £500m per year by 2027 and £1bn per year by 2030.
With this context, it is no surprise that landowners are looking seriously at the opportunities. But as with any golden goose, it is often not all that it first appears to be. The environmental market supply chain is developing fast but with that comes risks. It is not available to everyone as some of the opportunities are place based – biodiversity net gain needs to be within the same planning authority, Nutrient Neutrality offsetting must be within the affected catchment, and specific habitat creation or restoration must be in the right place. There is an economic aspect, and it is unlikely that woodland creation will perform better than highly productive arable land, even with carbon payments.
Rightly, most natural capital markets, rightly, require long-term land use change, and often at large scale, and these need serious consideration by landowners. Long-term means a minimum of 30 years for biodiversity net gain, up to 120 years for nutrient offsetting, and 30-40 years for woodland creation for carbon sequestration. The Defra Landscape Recovery scheme has a minimum 20-year project length. What happens at the end of an agreement is vague at best and so for now, the change in use must be considered permanent and factored into negotiations on payments.