Insight

Unintended Consequences of NPPF: A Landowner’s View

28.2.25 3 Minute Read

With the Labour Government proposing changes to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) and adjustments to the way housing numbers are calculated, the planning landscape is set to shift significantly.

These revisions open new opportunities for landowners, developers, and promoters to bring forward land for development, particularly in areas where Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) have failed to meet their housing targets or maintain a five-year land supply. However, while this may seem like a golden opportunity, the unintended consequences could reshape the land market in unexpected ways.

Contributors:

Mark Buddle

Partner, Head of Residential Development

A Surge in Speculative Planning Applications

The general expectation is that developers, promoters, and landowners will move quickly to submit speculative planning applications rather than endure the lengthy and often frustrating process of promoting land through the Local Plan system. Given that Local Plan reviews can take several years, many will see this as a rare window of opportunity to expedite development proposals while policy conditions are favourable.

Increased Pressure on Local Authorities and the Planning Inspectorate

A sudden influx of planning applications will inevitably place significant strain on LPAs, many of which are already under-resourced. As planning officers struggle to cope with the sheer volume of applications, delays will become commonplace, leading to an increase in appeals against non-determination. This, in turn, will put further pressure on the Planning Inspectorate, potentially creating a bottleneck in decision-making and exacerbating frustrations for all involved.

Timing is Key

For landowners looking to maximise value, timing will be crucial. Those who act swiftly and submit well-prepared, policy-compliant planning applications stand the best chance of success. However, with finite housing numbers to be allocated, the race to secure permissions will intensify. Once these housing targets are met, securing new consents may become significantly more challenging, limiting future opportunities.

A Boom in Land Deals – But for How Long?

If the anticipated wave of speculative applications materialises, the next few years could see an increase in land transactions over the next three to five years. More land will be brought to market as developers and promoters seek to take advantage of the planning environment. However, this raises the question: will housebuilders and developers acquire so much land that the market slows down once these sites begin to be built out? A short-term boom could lead to a period of stagnation once the initial demand has been satisfied.

The Impact on Land Values

Despite the increased volume of land coming to market, land values are unlikely to rise significantly. Instead, the abundance of available sites could create a buyers’ market, where developers and investors have the luxury of picking and choosing the most attractive opportunities. This could lead to downward pressure on land prices, particularly in areas with a high supply of available sites.

Can the Industry Deliver?

Even if planning permissions are secured in large numbers, another critical question remains: will there be enough housebuilders, developers, housing associations, private rental sector (PRS) operators, and property companies to deliver the homes? The construction industry already faces challenges around labour and material shortages. A sudden surge in projects could exacerbate these issues, leading to increased costs and delays, which in turn could impact delivery rates and overall profitability.

What Lies Ahead?

The next few years will undoubtedly be an interesting and challenging time for the residential development sector. With the Government aiming to deliver 1.5 million homes in this parliament, the industry will play a crucial role in achieving this ambition. However, the unintended consequences of policy changes could shape the market in unpredictable ways.

For landowners, this is a time of opportunity but also one of careful strategy. Understanding market dynamics, acting at the right moment, and aligning with experienced planning consultants, land agents and developers / promoters will be key to navigating the changing landscape successfully.

Get in touch with our team

Mark Buddle

Partner, Head of Residential Development

Mark leads our residential development work and oversees a total strategic landbank for our clients which rarely dips below 100,000 plots.

Mark Buddle

Partner, Head of Residential Development

Unintended Consequences of NPPF: A Landowner’s View